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Journal of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 2692-6334

Research Article Open Access
Volume 2 | Issue 3 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.46439/allergy.2.026

Impact of COVID-19 vaccination drive in adults on vaccine-induced immunity in India: A Markov cohort model

Srinivas Mantha1,*, Sudha Lakshmi Tripuraneni2, Venkat Ramana Rao Mantha3
  • 1Research Consultant & Pain Physician, Division of Pain Medicine, Mantha Heart Clinic, Barkatpura, Hyderabad, India
  • 2Consultant Cardiologist, Division of Cardiology, Mantha Heart Clinic, Barkatpura, Hyderabad, India
  • 3Research Advisor, Mantha Heart Clinic, Barkatpura, Hyderabad, India
+ Affiliations - Affiliations

Corresponding Author

Srinivas Mantha, smantha@srinivasmantha.com

Received Date: August 21, 2021

Accepted Date: September 17, 2021

Citation:

Mantha S, Tripuraneni SL,Mantha VRR. Impact of COVID-19 vaccination drive in adults on vaccineinduced immunity in India: A Markov cohort model. J Allergy Infect Dis 2021; 2(3):66-72.


Copyright: © 2021 Mantha S, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Abstract

Objective: Need to control the COVID-19 pandemic resurgence is a priority in India which has an estimated population of 1.39199 billion. Immunity whether acquired by recovery or vaccine, controls an infectious disease epidemic. In case of COIVD-19, the latter is more desirable. The objective of this study is to answer a research question “What is the impact of current vaccination drive in adults in generating vaccine-induced immunity in India?”

Methods: A Markov-based decision analysis model was used with daily cycles for a period of one year. Primary aim was to determine the extent to which vaccine-induced immunity is generated at one year. Parameter uncertainty was handled by random sampling of model inputs from their respective distributions during Monte Carlo simulation (5000 cycles). The model inputs were relevant to India as of August 8, 2021 and were varied to cover both worst-case and best-case scenarios to avoid bias. 

Results: Median and 95% uncertainty interval for vaccine-induced immunity was 43.17 (26.14 to 59.97) when expressed as % of total population. It contributed predominantly to the total immune pool (natural and vaccine-induced) which was 82.49 (34.89 to 92.84). Relative contribution (%) of vaccine-induced immunity to the total immune pool was 59.66 (35.43 to 93.66). The wide uncertainty intervals are a consequence of inconsistency of parameters which is typical to dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusions: Answer to the research question is that the planned vaccination schedule is encouraging. Population immunity acquired predominantly by vaccination is desirable. Efforts need to be focused on further increasing the vaccination rate and on handling the vaccine hesitancy to augment the desired yield. Reducing cases is not only beneficial for decreasing the pressure on healthcare systems, but also enhances resistance against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Keywords

COVID-19, Pandemic, India, Vaccination, Decision tree, SEIR model, Markov model, Vaccine-induced immunity, Infectious diseases, Covaxin, Covishield

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