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Commentary Open Access
Volume 1 | Issue 1 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.46439/allergy.1.002

Dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic in Italy and some global predictions

  • 1Institute of Hydromechanics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Zheliabova St, 8/4, UA-03680 Kyiv, Ukraine
  • 2National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Peremohy Av, 37, UA-03056, Kyiv, Ukraine
+ Affiliations - Affiliations

Corresponding Author

Igor Nesteruk, inesteruk@yahoo.com

Received Date: April 09, 2020

Accepted Date: April 20, 2020

Abstract

The pandemic caused by coronavirus COVID-19 are of great concern. A detailed scientific analysis of this phenomenon is still to come, but now it is urgently needed to evaluate the parameters of the disease dynamics in order to make some preliminary estimations of the number of cases and possible duration of the pandemic. The corresponding mathematical models must be simple enough, since their parameters are unknown and have to be estimated using limited statistical data sets. The SIR model, statistical approach to the parameter identification and the official WHO daily data about the confirmed cumulative number of cases were used to calculate the SIR curves and make some estimations and predictions. Some prospects for the global pandemic dynamics  are discussed.

Keywords

Coronavirus pandemic, Epidemic outbreak in Italy, Coronavirus COVID-19, Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Mathematical modeling of infection diseases, SIR model, Parameter identification, Statistical methods

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