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Commentary Open Access
Volume 3 | Issue 1 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.46439/aging.3.014

Population ageing and intergenerational conflicts in direct democracy: Separating age from cohort effects

  • 1London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE) and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK
  • 2University of Hamburg, Department of Economics, Chair of Economic Policy, Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Corresponding Author

Steffen Q. Mueller, steffen.mueller@uni-hamburg.de

Received Date: October 04, 2022

Accepted Date: October 20, 2022

Abstract

A strong intergenerational divide in voting behaviour has become a frequently reported stylized fact in post-referendum analyses, raising the question of whether myopia of elderly voters is a cause for concern in ageing societies. However, identifying the origins of a generation gap is empirically challenging because age and birth cohort are collinear at any given point in time. Building on a previous study, we summarize how this problem can be overcome. We discuss an unconstrained rank regression approach that allows estimating the causal ageing effect on political attitudes conditional on arbitrary cohort effects in a flexible manner. As they age, voters of all cohorts become more politically conservative and less supportive of reform projects aimed at protecting the environment, benefitting the working population, and redistributing wealth from the rich to the disadvantaged. As population ageing progresses, forward-thinking reform projects will have declining chances of winning majorities in direct votes.

Keywords

Age, Cohort, Population ageing, Generation gap, Voting

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